Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-23 07:04:45
Danger:3
Primary Trend:2
Primary Probability:4
Primary Likelihood:3
Primary Size:1
Primary Description:

With the clouds in place this is not likely and yet if we see much sunshine this should be one of the first things on your mind.

These small loose snow avalanches can become the trigger for the bigger slab on the persistent weak layer. This continues to be the concern. This has been noted several times over the last 3 days in the region.

Secondary Trend:1
Secondary Probability:3
Secondary Likelihood:1
Secondary Size:1
Secondary Description:

With the clouds in place this is not likely and yet if we see much sunshine this should be one of the first things on your mind.

These small loose snow avalanches can become the trigger for the bigger slab on the persistent weak layer. This continues to be the concern. This has been noted several times over the last 3 days in the region.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Scattered snow showers in the morning, then numerous rain showers. Highs around 38. East wind 10 mph.

Tonight- Decreasing clouds. Scattered rain and snow showers in the evening. Lows 25 to 30. Northeast wind 10 mph.

Friday- Increasing clouds. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs around 41. North wind 10 mph. Near downtown juneau and douglas, northeast wind 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE. We have a persistent weak layer in places that is unstable. It continues to be active in both natural and human triggered avalanches.

This morning temperatures are back below freezing again around the region. Its 32f at the Eaglecrest base, 29 mid mountain and 26 on summit. The tram is just below freezing and has only been below freezing a short time.

Winds are mostly calm with 10mph winds at Eaglecrest and 5mph winds at the tram.

The forecast calls for clouds, cooler temps and low winds from the East. This should limit the natural avalanche activity. Should we see much sun again remember that would change and natural activity danger would increase.

Human triggered avalanches remain the concern. Be safe out there. People are continuing to trigger slides near a meter in depth that are propagating widely. These are sizable slides. Limit your exposure to the terrain. Be aware danger remains on steep slopes.

Tip:

Persistent Weak Layers

Weak layers that continue to produce avalanches for several days or weeks after a storm.

Persistent Weak Layers:

Certain weak layers tend to stabilize quickly after a storm while other kinds of weak layers take much longer to stabilize. The three most notorious, persistent weak layer include: faceted snow, depth hoar and surface hoar. As you can imagine, persistent weak layers cause most avalanche accidents because the avalanche danger can linger several days after a storm, just waiting for a trigger.

The presence of a persistent weak layer, alone, doesn?t necessarily mean danger. But If a buried, persistent weak layer also produces a high quality shear and is also weak on your strength tests, you should definitely avoid avalanche terrain where those conditions exist.

Forecaster:Tom Mattice