Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-01-02 07:29:46
Danger:2
Primary Trend:2
Primary Probability:4
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

The faceted layer in place from last weekend remains a concern. It is over a foot down into the snowpack now and remains weak.

Look for this weakness in your snow stability tests in the areas you choose to recreate.

We had several natural avalanches on this layer while we had active loading earlier in the week. This shows a snowpack near a natural state of failure... it is simply awaiting a larger trigger... such as a skier on snowmobiler in the wrong location.

Be aware this weak layer may be present for some time.

Secondary Trend:2
Secondary Probability:3
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Size:2
Secondary Description:

We have not seen much in the way of wind during the last few days but did have considerable loading earlier in the week.

Be aware this windslab simply adds to the danger of the persistent slab we have in place. it adds both increased stress in the windloaded areas and mass to the slab creating larger avalanches should they occur.

Winds are light on the gauges this morning but Sheep Mountain is showing strong outflow winds. If Mt Roberts and Mt Juneau see these same winds recognize they create rapid loading and increase stress in these areas.

If you see wind blowing snow off the ridges today recognize this is increasing stress and weakness in the snowpack.

Please continue to aviod the gated trails above the Berhands Neighborhood until this weak layer goes away.

Winds are light now but calling for 14-18mph over the next 24 hours which will continue to add stress to the snowpack in place.

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Mostly sunny. Highs around 32. Light winds.

Tonight- Clear. Patchy freezing fog. Lows around 22. Light winds.

Tuesday- Partly cloudy. Areas of freezing fog. Highs around 30. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday Night- Partly cloudy. Patchy freezing fog. Lows 17 to 23. Light winds.

Mountain Top Temperatures have risen a fair amount over the last 24 hours. Eaglecrest has seen nearly a 8 degrees temperature swing right up to the point of freezing... and the tram warmed up by nearly 15 degrees.

We have rolled over into a pretty good temperature inversion in the last two days. This morning temperatures in town are about 20f degrees... Currently at the Mt Roberts Tram Summit it is nearly 40 degrees showing increased temperatures at elevations. This will place additional stress on the snowpack as things will settle quite rapidly. After temps cool again this will build strength into the snowpack but at the current time it is working against us.

With slight cooling in the forecast for the next 24 hours and no new precip danger will decrease slightly but be aware our primary weak layer may still be in place and may not effected by the current weather trends.

Avalanche danger is MODERATE at this time. Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.

Small avalanches may be possible in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.

Tip:

Here is a cute naration of 11 steps on how to survive an avalanche.

Be Safe out there today friends.

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-an-Avalanche

Forecaster:Tom Mattice