Today's Discussion

With increased temperatures and increased winds avalanche danger remains MODERATE today.  Natural avalanches are possible primarily for smaller events in the urban paths.

With solar warming and the forecast calling for the warmest day in some time...  avalanche danger is MODERATE for small to mid sized wet loose and wet slab avalanches.  The sun and the heat of the day will be the driving factors.  Look to see activity potentially increase in the middle to later part of the day primarily on South and Southwest facing slopes.

We still do not expect to see  activity large enough to reach the urban interface and yet if you choose to hike the flume trail today you may see activity come down close to the trail.

We received no precipitation yesterday but temps did warm a great deal.  The tram saw peak highs of 43f.  Its currently 40f and will warm rapidly with the sun out.  Eaglecrest also hit 41f at Powder Patch and 37f on summit.  We expect to see a quite a bit more warming today.  Currently its 34f on summit at Eagelcrest and 39f at powder patch.  Again with the sun out we should start to see rapid warming.

Winds today are to remain quite strong and loading the urban paths increasing avalanche potential.  Currently winds are NNE38-42 at Sheep Mountain.  The tram is at NNE 28-36mph this am.  Eaglecrest is showing NNE27-34mph winds.  Watch to see slabs form on southerly aspects.  Solar warming will be a concern on these wind slabs as well...

Once again we do not expect widespread activity or very large avalanches...  but we do expect to see avalanches potential increasing through the day with the sun and warming and increasing outflow winds...  Avoid southern aspects in the mid to later part of the day.

Reemember peak winds yesterday hit N83 at Sheep Mountain, NNE51mph at the ttram where its a bit more sheltered and NNE56 at the Eaglecrest summits.  More than enough to drive windloading if the snow stayed on the mountain and didnt simply blow off into the channel.

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Increasing clouds. Highs in the lower 50s. East winds around 10 mph, except east 25 to 35 mph near downtown juneau and douglas.

Tonight- Decreasing clouds. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds around 10 mph.

Friday- Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night- Increasing clouds. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds around 10 mph.

Primary Avalanche Problem

Loose Wet

Description

Currently its already above freezing in our mountain starting zones.  With little cooling over night and with solar warming and the warmest temps in some time we expect to see small loose wet avalanches on South to West aspects.

These should be small in size and not effect the urban interface.

We may also see wet slabs if we see enough warming and these soft new wind slabs form on southerly warm aspects.

We picked up a bit of new snow around the region over the last week at uppermost elevations.  Today rapid warming will test the bonds in place and we may see storm slabs or wind slabs turn into wet slab avalanches today in the later, warmer part of the day.

Dangers will increase from East to South to Southwest facing slopes throughout the day.  Dangers will peak in late afternoon on Southerly aspects.

Secondary Avalanche Problem

Wind Slab

Description

With strong outflow winds in the urban paths over the last 24 hours, expect to see windloading on our urban faces.  This may be enough to drive natural avalanches and yet sizes should remain small enough not to come down to sea level.

Dangers continue to increase over time as wind are forecat to remain.

With current winds in the 20-30's and peak winds into the 50's+ wind loading will remain a concern today.

Decreasing winds over the next few days with cooler temps should start to limit  activity over time but today we will likely see some small activity with the incredible warming and strong winds.

Please continue to support the Coastal AK Avalanche Center at

http://CoastalAkAvalanche.org

Your observations help all the forecasters in the region better understand the nature of the instabilities...  Are they widespread on all aspects?  or limited in aspect and elevations.  Are they meeting our forecast expectations or should we revisit our forecasts due to increasing activity?  There is so much these observations tell us...  Please help educate your community by sharing what you see in the mountains and remember...  The more we know the safer the snow.

Be safe out there and enjoy a little new snow while dangers are building around the region today.