Avalanche Advisory Archive Pre-2016

Date Issued:2014-04-20
Danger:1
Trend:3
Probability:0
Size:1
Problem:0
Discussion:

TODAY ... PERIODS OF RAIN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY
SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 53. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT ... INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE. LOWS
AROUND 38. EAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

MONDAY ... MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 50. EAST WIND 10 MPH.

Sun in the morning yesterday, followed by a paltry 2.5mm of rain begining about 2am last night, led to another 3.5cm of settlement up at the Tram. With temps there just above 2C the start zones are all seeing light rain this morning.

Overall we have seen just over 20cm of settlement since April 11th, or to put it another way we've lost 13% of our remaining snowpack in the last week.

Due to rapidly disappearing snow cover, and fairly strong settlement and consolidation of the remaining snow we are going to discontinue daily avalanche advisories.

In the event of a large, cold, storm that would re-ignite the hazard we will post special bulletins here.

Otherwise the hazard remains LOW for the foreseeable future with the primary avalanche problem being wet spring slides that gouge and entrain snow from point, or small, releases. The size of these slides is unlikely to reach developed areas or cross Thane Rd or the Flume Trails.

As more of the Perseverance Basin melts out continue to be aware of what is above you. Wet slides there routinely reach all the way to the valley floor until well into May.

Backcountry Travelers keep your wits about you; there is a substantial layer of wet grains at lower elevations that is easy to initiate slides in. Until we get low enough night time temps to get a good freeze/thaw cycle going they will persist and grow.

Tip:

END OF SEASON WRAP UP

We have expanded the forecast team this year with some forecasters taking on larger roles than in previous seasons and some new forecasters coming on board. We have all put in blood, sweat, tears, and more than a few unpaid hours to try to give you the best product possible. We have all dug so many holes in the snow that on our CBJ paychecks they state ?shoveler? as our official position

We try to give the citizens of Juneau the best information possible in order to keep them safe. In the end attempting to save lives is why we are as passionate about what we do as we all are.

Of course with that passion comes opinions, and while we all have the same goal, we have different thoughts on how to get there. Which is why you have seen some new things this year: more profiles posted than ever before, more in depth avalanche tips, more opinions about back country travel practices, etc.

In the end though this forecast doesn?t belong to us, it belongs to you. As citizens of Juneau this product exists for you. So sound off about it: Tell us what you like and what you don?t, tell us what you want to see more of.

Don?t be afraid to tell the assembly what you want either - Any fundamental changes to the nature of the program have to come through them. In a time of budget deficits, expansion of any program will be looked at carefully, the best way for that to happen is for YOU to make your opinions known.

Thanks for a great season,
Hope to see you next year,

Chris Eckel
Pat Dryer
Cory Hansen
Peter Flynn
Tom Mattice (Glorious Leader)

... End of season photos ...
1) Sometimes it is a nice office ...
2) One last look at the classic continental style facets that we hopefully don't see again for a few years.
3) Someone told me it is easier to trigger avalanches from thin spots this year ... but all my tests were rock solid!

Forecaster:Chris Eckel