TODAY...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION 2 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS 33 TO 37. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 3
INCHES. LOWS AROUND 32. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATE.

MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION TO 1 INCH. SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 800 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 38. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 MPH.

In the last 72hrs we have had 30mm of water fall as snow into the start zones on top of a firm melt-freeze crust. Winds picked up last night last night around 10pm and are holding in the 20's.

This new snow is resting on a snowpack with a number of layers and crusts but that has had a stretch of warmer weather to settle and bond. For the most part the deeper snowpack is now holding together pretty well in tests.

The new storm snow is not bonding well to the melt-freeze crust particularly at the lower end of the start zones in the 2000ft range. With the winds creating classic cross-loading and another 3-8in of snow forecast for the start zones today/tonight new poorly bonded storm/wind slabs are likely.

While wind can transport a lot of snow I do not expect the size of natural avalanches to be large enough to damage structures or reach the road on Thane.

Remember it doesn't take a large avalanche to cause problems for hikers on the Flume/Perseverance Trails. Today is a good day to stay out from underneath steeper terrain and known avalanche paths.

WHEN TRAVELING IN THE BACKCOUNTRY:
Look the $*%&^ uphill!

Is Juneau?s collective memory so short that the multiple avalanche incidents each year go uncounted at the start of the next season? Just because the last double fatality here was 15yrs ago does that mean it is all safe today?!

Your beacon, probe, and shovel are a parachute to give you one last chance when you screw it up.

Your head is your primary protection from avalanches. Each day we try to give you some tips and tricks to help your head engage and to focus you on being tuned in to the avalanche dangers around Juneau.

Based on my observations yesterday we are mostly failing.

With a break in the weather multiple groups took off to locations all over Douglas Island. Despite new snow, buried weak layers, and multiple avalanches caused the day before by the Eaglecrest Ski Patrol very few good choices were made and a lot of folks got lucky.

Many of you even know who you are. If you are not sure; if your motto is ?Well, if nothing bad happened then I made a good decision.? Then I?m talking about you.

One that didn?t have a clue was the guy who traversed into the middle of an avalanche path, over fresh debris that had come down it, and directly into the adjacent path that had not slid. I happened to be standing on top of that one. He never looked up. Not once. Not while he stopped in the middle of it, called his kid brother to join him, or dropped in to ski it. When my partner finally called it clear and I cut the slope I released a 12 inch crown that was 65ft wide. Easily enough snow to bury anybody caught in it.

How often to you look to see who might be triggering a slide from above you? How often do you have a spotter make sure the slope beneath you is safe before you drop in?

For the next couple hours digging pits I watched people dropping in without bothering to check who might be below them, and others traversing across avalanche paths without looking up, or carrying safety gear.

Not just a couple. Dozens.

WE HAVE CREATED, AND NOW SUSTAIN, A CULTURE IN THE BACKCOUNTRY ON DOUGLAS THAT NOT ONLY ENCOURAGES BAD DECISIONS, IT CHERISHES THEM.

Afterall, if you pause to check your partners, look at the snow, or even take a breath before deciding if what you are about to do is a good idea then you ?lose out? to other backcountry travelers. Or as one party told me yesterday, they would have looked around more but one of them had to get to a meeting at 1030am.

I wonder how many of you that have told someone (or yourself) that ?It is safe it is Douglas.? I could convince to cross Main St with a blindfold on, not looking left or right? Afterall, there isn?t that much traffic, 999 times out of a thousand you?d be fine.

What is the worst that could happen?

Parents should be looking to the professionals in the community to set not just good, but great examples.

Individuals who have others follow them into the backcountry, whether friends, siblings, or otherwise should think about the responsibility they have just by being themselves. I?ve pulled bodies out of the snow. Do you want to?!

Organization members should be looking to create a culture of safety within their organization. This isn?t something written on a piece of paper somewhere it is how you act among yourselves on and off duty. Doesn?t matter whether you a member of the Snow Machine Club, Juneau Mountain Rescue, Ski Club, AELP Snow Safety Team, Eaglecrest Patrol, or the Alpine Club.

YOU DO NOT WANT TO HAVE TO DO A COMPANION RESCUE.

And if you are not prepared to do a companion rescue then you have no parachute.

What is the worst that could happen?

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