Avalanche Advisory Archive 2016 – 2018

Date Issued:2017-03-12 07:55:56
Danger:3
Primary Trend:3
Primary Probability:3
Primary Likelihood:2
Primary Size:2
Primary Description:

We have seen a week with high winds. We had significant wind slab avalanche activity last weekend that has gone dormant for the most part yet has not fully stabilized... today new snow and wind will build winds slabs rapidly and bring questionability to the deeper weak layer in place. Choose your terrain wisely over the next few days as danger is building rapidly

Secondary Trend:3
Secondary Probability:3
Secondary Likelihood:2
Secondary Description:

With continued winds and new snow the cornices around the region will build out rapidly. Keep an eye on these and be aware with this new system they will build quickly and be weak

Discussion:

The National Weather Service Forecasts-

Today- Flurries early in the morning, then snow. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Highs around 30. Northeast wind 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph in the late morning and afternoon.

Tonight- Snow. Snow accumulation 5 to 7 inches. Lows 23 to 29. Northeast wind 10 mph.

Monday- Snow and rain. Snow accumulation 1 to 5 inches. Snow level 200 feet. Highs around 35. Light winds.

Avalanche Danger is currently Low to Moderate. We have some remaining weakness and questionability in the wind slabs built from last weeks storm. We have seen several days of very cold temps and high winds. Hard windslabs have been built around our region. This bed surface remains cold and smooth. New snow will likely not bond well to the old snow surface.

Today's forecast calls for continued winds and the addition of new snow fall. As I said this will probably not bond well and will immediately start to form a new weakness

Another question is how last weeks weak layer will respond to the new load. I assume danger in this deeper weak layer will not be widespread. Nor will it trigger easily.. and yet should it be triggered it would be a hard slab avalanche with much greater consequence.

Remember this is a 24 hour forecast so even though dangers are currently limited it will change rapidly today and tonight and by tomorrow expect Considerable to High avalanche danger.

Tip:

Remember good travel practices over the next few days! Transceiver probe shovel and a well trained partner! Yet a stay safe out there Juneau

Forecaster:Tom Mattice